Juvenile Survival and Growth Probability in the Suwannee Alligator Snapping Turtle
The Suwannee Alligator Snapping Turtle (Macrochelys suwanniensis) is confined to the Suwannee River drainage in Florida and Georgia, where it is listed as threatened in both states. It is currently being considered for listing under the Endangered Species Act. Researchers from the University of Florida and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission initiated a capture-mark-recapture (CMR) study in 2011, and a recent population assessment found an “uncertain” population status in the river mainstem in Florida. This finding is likely due to the large amount of uncertainty around estimates of juvenile apparent survival and a low juvenile to adult growth probability. After 12 years of CMR sampling, researchers have recaptured turtles that were marked as juveniles and have since matured into adults. Here, we present a multistate model for M. suwanniensis that could, 1) provide better estimates of juvenile apparent survival, 2) estimate the juvenile to adult growth probability directly from the CMR data, and 3) help clarify this species’ status.